On asking why, copying, and outcome bias

12th of May 2022

I seem to go through a cycle of thinking I ask ‘why’ way too much, and then, shortly after, that I don’t ask ‘why’ nearly enough. The truth is more likely that you can't ask it often enough, but that you (I) can find more contextually useful ways to do it. And that sometimes asking ‘why’ is necessarily unpleasant in the way that saying ‘no’ can sometimes be.

What's got me thinking about this is a re-reading of Simon Wardley’s excellent, and thought provoking Wardley Mapping book.

One particular idea that is frequently relevant in my work is outcome bias. Simon shares the following idea (my paraphrasing – go read his!). Imagine you've got a regular six-sided dice. Each time you roll it you are allowed to guess one of two things: Either it will show a six; or it will show any other number (one to five inclusive). Now, in terms of probability we can say it absolutely makes sense to guess the latter. It is far more likely to land on one to five than it is to land on six. However, imagine you don't realise it's a dice being rolled. you can't see the mechanism, just the guesses and the outcomes. If you see someone guessing six and ‘winning’, then you are quite likely to assume they did something right. You may even copy them guessing on six. Without asking why, without looking at the process as well as the outcome, you may be making a set of assumptions and choices without even realising you are doing so.

Design still sits at the core of what I do and how I approach my work, and design is necessarily purposeful. Playing with and exploring this idea of outcome bias has been useful in realising that my ‘why’ questioning is not because I think I know better (I definitely don’t), but because I don’t know enough. I ask ‘why’ to explore, to dig and to make sure I’m building on something solid, not the treacherous foundations of outcome bias.

Alex Magill

I’m Alex Magill. I work at (and on) my design consultancy, Bold Wise, and I write about exploration, creativity, design and process. You can find me on Mastodon or drop me a line at eponymous@alexmagill.com.

© Alex Magill